Researchers at Imperial College London have warned that southern China will face increasingly severe and wetter typhoons as climate change intensifies.
The study highlights that even minor increases in weather event intensity can result in disproportionate economic damage. It estimates that climate change contributed to approximately 36% of the direct damage caused by Super Typhoon Ragasa, which struck on September 22, impacting southern China after wreaking havoc in the northern Philippines and Taiwan, claiming at least 25 lives, reports 24brussels.
Super Typhoon Ragasa, at its peak akin to a Category 5 hurricane, unleashed torrential rains, destructive winds, and extensive flooding across its path. The storm’s peak wind speeds upon reaching southern China were enhanced by 7% due to climate change, translating to an increase of around 13 km/h (8 mph). Without the influence of climate change, such wind speeds would occur roughly every 13 years, but under current conditions, they are projected to occur every eight years.
Additionally, the rainfall intensity from the typhoon was amplified by 13% owing to climate change, causing severe weather events in the area—historically seen every seven years—to now be expected every five years.
“In a world without climate change, a weaker typhoon would have been about 36% less damaging. This means climate change was behind more than a third of the economic damages from Typhoon Ragasa in China,” the study states.
The total economic impact across Southeast Asia and China remains unspecified, but preliminary estimates suggest losses could reach hundreds of millions of USD, with insured losses potentially exceeding tens of millions.
To evaluate Ragasa’s impact, the team utilized the Imperial College Storm Model (IRIS), a climate modeling tool that assesses the extent to which human-induced climate change has intensified specific extreme weather occurrences. It does this by comparing contemporary atmospheric conditions against a simulated pre-industrial scenario.
“This study highlights the urgent need for reducing emissions now, rather than deferring action, as governments are compelled to allocate substantial funds to address extreme weather aggravated by climate change,” stated Emily Theokritoff from the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London.
“The longer the transition away from fossil fuels takes, the more severe and costly extreme weather incidents will become.”
Wetter and More Intense Storms
Tropical cyclones—termed typhoons in the northwestern Pacific and hurricanes in the Atlantic—are becoming increasingly intense, a trend linked to rising ocean temperatures, as noted by scientists.
“China appears to have prepared well for Ragasa,” commented Ralf Toumi, Director of the Grantham Institute. However, he warned, “as the climate warms, we can expect more typhoons to reach Categories 4 and 5. Storms of this strength risk massive damage, even with significant preparation in place.”
The research indicated that in a world warmed by 2C, damage from a typhoon similar to Ragasa could be 24% greater. The study outlines that once storms surpass a certain threshold, structural failures and debris-generated destruction escalate costs dramatically, as explained by Toumi.
According to the United Nations, the world is on course for a temperature increase of 2.6 to 3.1C by the end of this century.
This study corroborates findings from recent research, which established that tropical cyclones like Super Typhoon Ragasa today are about 10% wetter, roughly 1C warmer, and approximately 4% windier compared to historical data. It also highlighted that the heavy rainfall, storm surges, and widespread flooding associated with Ragasa were intensified by climate change.