On 10 September 2025, an investigation by the Schemes project reported the construction of a covert military site near the village of Pavlivka, south of Minsk, underway since June 2024. Citing satellite imagery and field analysis, the report said Belarusian authorities have not publicly acknowledged the project, which experts believe could be prepared for Russia’s medium-range ballistic missile complex known as “Oreshnik.” If confirmed, the facility would carry strategic weight for Moscow in its war against Ukraine and its standoff with the West.
Satellite imagery shows rapid expansion and new infrastructure
Journalists traced the site to the former Soviet “Military Camp No. 25 ‘Pavlivka,’” once home to the Slutsk 306th Strategic Missile Regiment equipped with R-12, “Pioneer,” and “Topol” systems. Imagery indicates extensive tree clearing and earthworks beginning in June 2024, with the most intensive activity in 2025. The developed footprint now exceeds 2 square kilometers—roughly 280 football fields—and features depots, three equipment hangars, and foundations for additional buildings, including personnel facilities. Three more prepared pads, linked by roads, are visible nearby, pointing to further build-out.
Expert assessment points to a potential strategic missile base
Retired Major Marko Eklund, a Finland-based former intelligence officer who has studied Russia’s armed forces, told Eesti Ekspress the complex resembles a strategic missile base and “could fit” an Oreshnik deployment. Official Minsk has remained silent; journalists found no references to the site in public documents or cadastral maps. The absence of disclosures, coupled with fast-tracked construction and purpose-built pads, aligns with patterns seen at other strategic facilities.
Capabilities of ‘Oreshnik’ raise stakes for NATO’s eastern flank
Oreshnik is described as a new Russian medium-range system capable of carrying a multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle, complicating interception by modern missile defenses. Stationing such missiles in Belarus would shorten flight times to targets across Ukraine and parts of Poland, exposing critical European infrastructure. The move would likely force NATO to bolster air and missile defenses, adjust force posture, and dedicate additional resources to the alliance’s eastern flank.
Political signals from Minsk and Moscow amplify regional tension
Moscow has previously indicated Oreshnik could be placed in Belarus by the end of 2025, underscoring deepening military integration and turning Belarusian territory into a lever over Kyiv and Western capitals. Against this backdrop, Belarus seeks limited openings with the West, including via contacts with Hungary’s leadership, even as it relies heavily on Russian political and financial backing. Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó’s visit to Minsk served both to showcase a semblance of normalization for Alyaksandr Lukashenko at home and, critics argue, to soften international pressure—an especially contentious message on a day when Ukraine faced fresh drone and missile strikes attributed to Russia.