Month: November 2025

#SouthCaucasus #Azerbaijan #IlhamAliyev

Ilham Aliyev, arrests of the opposition leaders, political oppression, and the fabricated plots against him: assessments, analysis, predictions

Current events as of November 29, 2025, mark a significant escalation: Azerbaijani police have raided the home of opposition leader Ali Karimli (Popular Front Party) and detained senior party members Faiq Amirli and Mammad Ibrahim. These actions are officially linked to an investigation into an alleged “coup attempt” attributed to Ramiz Mehdiyev, the former powerful Chief of Staff, whom the government accuses of plotting to seize power.Summary of Recent Developments (November 2025)
1. Assessments: The Current Wave of Repression
International organizations and human rights bodies describe the situation as a “vicious crackdown” and a “sharp decline” in fundamental freedoms, intensifying throughout 2024 and late 2025.
Targeting the Opposition: The raid on Ali Karimli’s home on November 29, 2025, is part of a broader campaign to dismantle the Popular Front Party (APFP), one of the few remaining organized opposition forces. Authorities allege Karimli was being “financed” by Ramiz Mehdiyev to destabilize the government.
Widespread Arrests: Beyond political leaders, the crackdown has targeted independent media and civil society. Prominent figures such as Gubad Ibadoghlu (economist), Tofig Yagublu (politician), and journalists from Abzas Media and Toplum TV (e.g., Sevinj Vagifgizi, Ulvi Hasanli) remain in detention on charges widely viewed as politically motivated, such as smuggling foreign currency or tax evasion.
Context of Control: This intensification coincided with the February 2024 presidential election—which monitors noted lacked genuine competition—and the hosting of the COP29 climate summit in Baku in November 2024.
2. Analysis: The “Fabricated Plots” & The Mehdiyev Case
The narrative of “fabricated plots” serves two primary functions: purging internal rivals (“old guard”) and delegitimizing external opposition.
The “Ramiz Mehdiyev Coup” Narrative: In October 2025, authorities arrested Ramiz Mehdiyev, 87, charging him with treason and attempting to seize power. The government’s narrative claims Mehdiyev proposed a “Provisional State Council” to replace President Ilham Aliyev and sought support from Russia.The “Russian Connection”: Pro-government media reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin personally informed Aliyev of this plot during a meeting in Dushanbe in October 2025. Analysts suggest this narrative conveniently frames the purge of Mehdiyev’s network as a defense of national sovereignty while simultaneously signaling a “loyalty test” for the elite.

Strategic Utility: By linking the traditional opposition (Karimli) to the demonized “old guard” (Mehdiyev), the regime creates a unified pretext to crush both. Experts view the charges against Mehdiyev—an 87-year-old loyalist who served the Aliyev family for decades—as implausible, suggesting they are a tool to finalize the transfer of power to a younger, more loyal cadre.
Previous Narratives: This fits a historical pattern where the government alleges “terrorist financing” or “illegal armed formations” (often linked to Armenia or Iran) to justify strict domestic control.
3. Predictions: Future Outlook
Consolidation of Power: The purge of the “old guard” (Mehdiyev era officials) is likely to continue until the administration is entirely reshaped around figures solely loyal to Ilham Aliyev and the First Vice President, Mehriban Aliyeva.
Eradication of Organized Opposition: The linkage of the APFP to a “coup plot” suggests the government may move to ban the party or permanently imprison its leadership, effectively ending organized political opposition in the country.
“Precarious Stability”: While the regime appears secure in the short term due to oil wealth and security apparatus control, experts assess its long-term stability as “precarious.” The suppression of all dissent leaves no outlet for social grievances, making the state vulnerable to external shocks or economic downturns.
Relations with Russia: The “Mehdiyev plot” narrative allows Baku to manage its complex relationship with Moscow—simultaneously accusing Russian elements of interference while praising Putin for “revealing” the plot, thus maintaining a delicate diplomatic balance.

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Exposing Aliyev’s Masquerade: The Illusion of Democracy Behind COP29 – Human Rights
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— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Nov 29, 2025

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I’ve traveled to more than 70 countries. Each one helped prepare me for motherhood in a unique way.

Post author By Mike Nova
Post date November 29, 2025

The author with her daughter by Lake Powell, AZ, in 2017. — The author and her daughter on the shore of Lake Powell in 2017.

Courtesy of Jennica Peterson

I spent many years traveling the globe and have been to more than 70 countries.
Experiences with wildlife and diverse cultures inspired have inspired my approach to parenting.
Motherhood, like adventure travel, requires courage, adaptability, and a sense of wonder.

I’ve given baths to elephants in Nepal, played tug-o-war over pancakes with a monkey in Guatemala, and spent sleepless nights on roach-infested buses through Brazil.

I’ve been humbled, amazed, and tested on my travels, at times wishing I could just go home and other times feeling more alive and overjoyed than ever before — kind of like a day in the life of a mom. After all, if you are a mother, perhaps you, too, have bathed an unwieldy, toddler-sized elephant, tussled with tiny monkeys over pancakes, and had your share of brutal sleepless nights.

In my mind, moms and other dedicated caregivers are true adventure travelers, even if they barely leave their neighborhood. I should know. Over the last 27 years, I’ve traveled through more than 70 countries across five continents, and motherhood is the wildest, most wondrous adventure I’ve ever known.

The author with her husband while traveling in Nepal in 2003. — The author and her husband while traveling in Nepal in 2003.

Courtesy of Jennica Peterson

I gained inspiration from gorillas

Before I had my daughter, I worked seasonal jobs in ski towns and national parks to save up for months-long backpacking trips all over the world. This itinerant life led me to a career as a writer and editor for national travel magazines.

Wild mountain gorilla mama and twins in Rwanda in 2012. Mom's name is Kabatwa and twins are Isangano (meeting place) and Isango (appointment). — The author said that working at TK gorilla mama and twins in Rwanda in 2012. Mom’s name is Kabatwa and twins are Isangano (meeting place) and Isango (appointment).

Courtesy of Jennica Peterson

Then, the once-in-a-lifetime chance to see a wild mountain gorilla mama and her twins in Rwanda’s Volcanoes National Park inspired me to want a different, deeply primal adventure — something that I couldn’t get to on a plane, bus, or train. Instead, I longed for the meaningful, internal exploration of life as a parent.

Good thing my husband, Mike, was also up for the trip.

There are overlaps between adventure travel and life with a baby

The first days after my daughter came home from the hospital, the experience of early motherhood felt familiar, but only because I’d been that bleary-eyed, overwhelmed, and at the same time absolutely enthralled before — in India. Riding an old-fashioned yellow taxi through Kolkata on our first day there had exposed me within minutes to more desperate poverty than I’d ever seen, but also more beauty, humanity, and the mind-blowing knowledge that this other, intense way of living went on every day, all the time, despite my ignorance of it. So goes life with a newborn.

The author at Chichén Itzá in Mexico in 1999.

Courtesy of Jennica Peterson

As I navigated those first months of motherhood, I felt the same sense of adventure, fear, wonder, and excitement I had while traveling alone to the Mayan ruins in Mexico, whitewater rafting amid crocodiles in Zimbabwe, and climbing the cable ladder up Half Dome in Yosemite. It took the same kind of courage and tenacity to get through it as well.

But the fierce love I felt for my baby journeyed beyond any place in my heart I’d ever known.

My new travel partner helps me see life with fresh eyes

By the time my daughter was a toddler, I’d come to see her as my pint-sized travel partner, transforming everyday events into fresh adventures.

Hunts for ladybugs and snails were our safaris. Chats with the diverse crew of nannies and parents at a local park became intercultural exchanges. Trips to the zoo were rainforest hikes, filled with macaws and monkeys. Wherever we went, she helped me explore the world anew through her eyes.

Along the way, when things fell apart or I felt like a failure, I remembered how many times I felt the same way on my global journeys.

There is no way to get an “A” grade in motherhood, just as there is no way to ace traveling through a complex, unfamiliar place. You will get lost and make mistakes. You will also depend on the generosity of strangers and the friendship of fellow travelers or other parents traveling through their own wild, amazing, unmapped terrain. You can only do your best, guided by your own internal compass.

Now that my daughter is 12, it’s clear to me she already possesses a traveler’s mindset of courage, curiosity, flexibility, and kindness. Wherever life takes her, she’ll be ready for the adventure.

Read the original article on Business Insider

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