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How retailers are responding to the affordability crisis this holiday season

Black Friday electronics shopping deals at Walmart Supercenter retail store in North Bergen, New Jersey
Retailers like Walmart are marketing affordability and value to attract increasingly cautious consumers.

  • Retailers are marketing affordability and value to attract increasingly cautious consumers.
  • Consumer sentiment is at historic lows, driving demand for lower prices and essentials.
  • Retailers are adjusting their promotional strategies and messaging to encourage spending.

Retailers are responding to the affordability crisis this holiday season.

In recent earnings calls, Target, Walmart, and Sally Beauty Holding addressed the cratering consumer sentiment and discussed their pricing strategies as the busiest time of year for shoppers approaches.

Consumers are feeling the pinch. According to the University of Michigan’s survey of consumers, sentiment dropped to 51 points in November, which is the second-lowest score the index has ever recorded since 1952, narrowly topped only by a score of 50 in June 2022.

Mark Cohen, the former director of retail studies at Columbia Business School, said that retailers are responding by investing more in lower-priced items and “adjusting their assortments” to give their customers the opportunity to buy from them at a lower price.

“Retailers have been getting more and more promotional for years in the main, but now they’re doing it with their feet standing on thin ice because they don’t know what to expect,” said Cohen. “The last thing they want is to have overhang inventory for the holidays when the season is over, so they have been discounting frantically.”

In Target’s third-quarter earnings call, Rick Gomez, the executive vice president of Target, said that because consumer sentiment is “at a three-year low amid concerns about jobs, affordability, and tariffs,” shoppers are looking to “celebrate with loved ones without overspending.”

“Guests are choiceful, stretching budgets and prioritizing value,” said Gomez. “They’re spending where it matters most, especially in food, essentials, and beauty, while looking for trend-right deals in discretionary categories.”

“Given our focus on affordability, we recently lowered prices on thousands of everyday food and essential items to help families further manage their budgets,” Gomez added.

Target is struggling with declining sales and had to cut its profit guidance for the end of the year, but companies that are faring better have similar concerns.

In their respective Q3 earnings calls, Home Depot said that “consumer uncertainty and continued pressure in housing” is driving down demand for larger home improvement projects, Lowe’s is expecting comp sales to remain “roughly flat” due to “a cautious consumer,” and Sally Beauty Holdings said it saw shoppers “leaning into value a bit more,” especially for those with low-income.

“The disparity in wage growth between those cohorts was as large as it’s been in almost a decade,” said John David Rainey, CFO of Walmart, during the company’s Q3 earnings call in reference to the relatively stagnant wage growth for low-income households.

“If pocketbooks are being stretched and consumers are being choiceful and value seeking, it stands to reason, if there’s more pressure on the consumer, they’re only going to become more so,” Rainey added, citing the value Walmart provides as a reason why the company is gaining market share in this economic environment.

The Federal Bank of New York wrote in its latest report that total household debt has reached a record high this year, totaling $18.59 trillion from July through September. Compared to the end of 2019, before the pandemic, overall debt levels have increased by $4.4 trillion.

Not every retail company is feeling equally cautious this holiday season. Best Buy hiked its sales forecast on “better-than-expected” sales in the third quarter because of strong results across computing, gaming, and growth in wearables. Gap Inc., in its Q3 earnings call, said that external data points to “macro pressure on the low-income consumer,” but the company raised its full-year guidance.

A change in messaging

Dax Dasilva, the CEO of Lightspeed Commerce, a retail analytics company, told Business Insider that shoppers now are “highly price-savvy” and drawn to transparency in pricing and offers that are easy to understand.

A consumer sentiment survey from Lightspeed Commerce found that of the 1,500 respondents in the US market, almost one in four of the surveyed individuals said they will use Black Friday only for everyday essentials, such as groceries and household basics, while 13% said they weren’t planning to spend at all.

“The brands winning right now are those showing empathy, not extravagance,” said Dasilva. “Messaging that celebrates practicality like ‘shop smarter,’ ‘stretch your dollar’ resonates far more than indulgent tones like ‘treat yourself.'”

Dasilva added that despite low consumer sentiment, sectors like bike, outdoor, sports, and self-care are still performing resiliently, which gives some indication toward what consumers are currently willing to invest in.

Jean-Pierre Dubé, professor of marketing at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, said that retailers are developing strategies to offer deals without permanently lowering prices, in fear that this may “recalibrate consumer price expectations” to be lower.

“Retailers like promotional discounts because they are temporary in nature, facilitating a necessary price reduction without leading the consumer to expect the lower price to persist,” said Dubé.

Dubé pointed to the rise of the “everyday-low-price” model, now widely used by chains like Walmart and T.J. Maxx, which he said is experiencing surprisingly good results because of the guarantee of consistent low prices within a specified period, without needing to wait for a big annual sale.

“Depending on how much inventory retailers acquired for the holiday season,” Dubé added, “I anticipate some exceptionally aggressive discounts and promotions.”

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I was successful but depressed at 41. I found a fulfilling side hustle in therapy, and negotiated a 4-day week to pursue it.

A headshot of Ben Tye.
Ben Tye is the CEO of Gate One

  • Ben Tye is the CEO and managing partner of a business consultancy.
  • He is also a qualified and practicing psychotherapist, who sees private clients every Monday.
  • When negotiating a four-day week, he argued that stepping away from work would give him a fresh perspective.

This as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with 55-year-old Ben Tye, the CEO of Gate One, who is based in London. The following has been edited for length and clarity.

My late 30s and early 40s were a difficult time. I had a successful career in management consulting, yet I was struggling with what I now know was depression and anxiety.

When I was 41, I started seeing a psychotherapist who recommended a book called “The Middle Passage” by James Hollis, which is about making the second part of your life, after your 40s, richer and more meaningful.

It really spoke to me and helped me to understand that, for some, midlife is a time of necessary suffering in order to prompt questions like, “who am I really?” and “what does my life want from me?” rather than, “what do I want from life?” It’s really quite profound and far from any “self-help” manual.

Six years later, in 2017, I began studying and training during the evenings and on weekends to qualify as a psychotherapist. It involved a one-year foundation certificate, a four-year post-graduate diploma, and a two-year research component.

All the while, I continued having my own therapy sessions on Tuesday evenings. That was while I was also running my own consultancy business.

The psychotherapy training took six and a half years and over 700 hours of supervised client contact time.

Ben Tye with fellow counselling students in London.
Ben Tye with fellow counselling students in London.

I pitched my four-day week as a way to get a fresh perspective on the business

I joined Gate One in 2018, and in 2021, when I was a partner, I was given permission to work a four-day week and run my own therapy practice on Mondays. We have a very flexible working policy so the negotiation I had with the company owners and other leaders wasn’t difficult.

I pitched that stepping out of the business a day a week would give me a fresh perspective and clearer headspace when I returned to work the next day. I recommend people who work a four-day week to have Mondays off, because it’s easier to start the week doing something else than it is to finish.

I typically see five clients a week out of a room in a beautiful building in central London’s Little Venice, overlooking a canal.

Ben Tye studying for his psychotherapy MA.
Ben Tye’s desk as he studied for his MA.

Little Venice is considered upmarket, but it’s a very mixed area socioeconomically, and clients bring a range of issues to sessions related to bereavement, addiction, relationships, work, their sense of self, and body image. I had experienced or known close friends, family, colleagues, and acquaintances who had experienced several of these issues.

My fee is £90 ($118) an hour, but I ask my clients to pay what they can afford. Even if it’s a symbolic amount, it represents an investment in themselves.

Mine and other people’s boundaries are clearer now

It’s been going well at work, as I make sure everyone knows what they should be doing when I’m off. The ability to delegate and trust people to do their work is a key leadership skill.

I received many in-person comments from colleagues, particularly women, who have said that they appreciated seeing a man in a senior role adopt a flexible working style. The policy has been in place for many years, but perhaps people felt it gave them “permission” to take advantage of it.

Two chairs face one another in Ben Tye's psychotherapy room.
Ben Tye’s psychotherapy room in London.

Balancing a third element of life alongside work and personal commitments brings boundaries more clearly into focus: yours and other people’s. There’s something really positive about having a better awareness of how one is spending one’s time, what one is working on at any given moment, and making sure things aren’t getting dropped or one isn’t taking too much on.

Completely separating myself from my work environment each week puts me in a very different headspace, which has helped me step away from the day-to-day business of being a leader. I’ll check my emails on a Monday evening after I’ve finished with my clients, and return to work on Tuesday with a fresh perspective.

I can’t give advice as a therapist, but I have to be direct as a CEO

But I do have to make sure I’m separating my two roles of psychotherapist and CEO.

Being a psychotherapist certainly makes you a good listener, gives you patience, and the ability to be curious and appreciate where others might be coming from. Work-wise, you also develop an understanding of group dynamics and the unconscious roles that people play.

As a leader, you have to be authoritative and direct, while a therapist shouldn’t tell people what to do or give direct advice. There’s no way I would ever slide into therapist mode with colleagues or professional clients, because that boundary needs to be maintained really carefully.

Ben Tye stands beside a flipboard.
Ben Tye doing a talk at Gate One on his psychotherapy work.

I hope I can be a therapist for longer than I’m a business consultant

I haven’t considered going full-time as a psychotherapist, as I’m quite senior in my business career and like to think I can add a lot of value.

But I am 55 and heading toward that final furlong of my work life. One of the reasons I became a therapist is to work longer than I might ordinarily be able to do as a business consultant.

Since training as a therapist, I have also done a two-year psychodynamic executive coaching program. That takes the theories and practices of psychoanalytics and psychotherapy and applies them to coaching. That’s the third leg that sits between what I do as a psychotherapist, and what I do as a consultant and a business leader.

After I hand over the baton to Gate One’s next leader, I anticipate I will do a mix of executive coaching, leadership development, and psychotherapy.

Therapy has given me a nice pathway for the last third of my life, allowing me to extend my career and do something really interesting and fulfilling, as I begin to dial down my other commitments in years to come.

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I drive for Uber and Lyft in Hawaii. I earn less than I did driving a cab, but this benefit keeps me coming back.

Richard Detty, a ride-hailing driver in Honolulu, wears sunglasses, a dark grey Hawaiian shirt, and a kukui nut lei while smiling and giving shaka signs with both hands.
Richard Detty drives for Uber and Lyft part-time in addition to his business as an Amazon seller.

  • Richard Detty has driven for Uber and Lyft in Honolulu since 2017.
  • Detty says it’s a flexible side hustle, but Hawaii needs laws protecting drivers’ pay.
  • Some ride-hailing drivers have said their earnings have fallen over the past few years.

This as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with Richard Detty, a 58-year-old ride-hailing driver for Uber and Lyft in Honolulu. Business Insider verified Detty’s earnings through screenshots he provided of his payments. The interview has been edited for length and clarity.

A Lyft spokesperson told Business Insider that “ensuring driver success is vital to our mission, and we’re continually looking to increase driver pay in smart, deliberate ways.” For example, the company has pledged that drivers will make at least 70% of the weekly rider fares after external fees, and has recently started paying drivers for the time they wait for a rider, starting after one minute.

An Uber spokesperson said, “We’re committed to policies that support flexible work and sustainable earnings without reducing opportunities or raising costs for riders.” Most Uber drivers drive for the app part-time, the spokesperson said.

Rideshare is my side hustle.

I grew up on Kauai, Hawaii, and spent years on the US mainland. In 2017, I moved to Honolulu. My main business is selling products from Hawaii, such as mochi crunch cookies, on Amazon. When I’m not doing that, I drive for Lyft and Uber.

Tourism is a big industry here, and there are plenty of rides to take. I often drive between the airport, Waikiki, Pearl Harbor, and other places that tourists want to go. I feel safer driving here than on the mainland, where you never know who you’re going to pick up.

There are also some unique challenges. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve picked up riders with wet bathing suits at the beach and had to dry out my seats before my next ride.

When I was in college here in 1991, I drove a cab part-time two or three times a week. I would give the guy who ran the taxi yard $35, and I could drive from six at night to six in the morning. I paid for the gas, but the taxi company covered everything else, including maintenance.

Back then, a ride from Waikiki to the Honolulu airport paid up to $25. Now, Lyft and Uber are offering me up to $12 as the base rate for the same ride. When I first started driving for the apps here, that same trip would’ve paid $18. Without tips, I’m dead in the water.

I wouldn’t mind some of these rates if Uber and Lyft provided me a car. But I’m now responsible for all the costs. I have to handle all my maintenance, and if my car breaks down, I’m out of luck.

What makes the pay harder to shoulder is that Hawaii is an expensive place to live. Everything costs more here than on the mainland because everything has to be shipped here. I’ve paid more than $4 a gallon for gas at Costco, and I’ve seen milk here for around $8 a gallon. The base rate for rideshare drivers needs to go up here.

Driving for Uber, Lyft full-time didn’t work

When I moved back to Hawaii eight years ago, Lyft and Uber advertised that drivers could make up to $35 an hour. That was very easy to do at the time.

Now, they advertise that drivers make $27 an hour, yet if anything, the fares I’ve seen seem to have gone up in that time. Where did the other $8 go? For me, it’s been one pay cut after another.

In 2022, I worked full-time for Lyft and Uber. I did it for 10 months because I wanted to save money to invest in my Amazon business.

Around that time, I started to notice that the payments I got were falling. I found that doing this full-time wasn’t livable, so I went back to doing it as a side hustle. I drove 30 and 40 hours a week and put close to 1,000 miles on my car each week.

The only thing that keeps me coming back to Uber and Lyft is the flexibility. I can go in and out when I want. I think Uber and Lyft count on that: It seems like they want people to be part-time drivers.

I’m lobbying the Honolulu city council, the mayor, and the state legislature to do something about the pay situation for ride-hailing drivers. We need laws similar to those that gig workers in Minneapolis or Seattle have, which promise a minimum wage and provide other protections. I could make a decent living getting paid like that. In Minneapolis, drivers are being paid at least $1.28 a mile and $0.31 a minute. That’s close to double what I make.

We need a pay rate that’s fair. So many costs that have gone up. We need to be able to make a living.

Do you have a story to share about Uber or other gig work? Contact this reporter at abitter@businessinsider.com or 808-854-4501.

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