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Is TAPI Just ‘TA’ for Now?
The idea for the 1,800-kilometer Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) natural gas pipeline project has been around for 30 years. There has not been much progress in building the pipeline during those decades.
The chances of seeing TAPI realized seem far away at the moment, considering Pakistan and India were involved in fighting in May of this year, and in October, there were battles along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.
However, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan are still interested in TAPI, and top officials from those two countries just met along the border to inaugurate a new section of the pipeline, and it looks like, for now, these two countries are enough.
Another Ceremony
Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, the chairman of Turkmenistan’s Halk Maslahaty (People’s Council), went to the Turkmen-Afghan border on October 20 to meet with Afghanistan’s Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, for an event inaugurating a new section of TAPI.
The ceremony for the Serhetabat-Herat section of TAPI took place just inside Afghanistan, not far from where top officials from the four countries involved, including Berdimuhamedov, gathered in February 2018 to launch construction of the Afghan section of TAPI. Berdimuhamedov made his only previous visit to Afghanistan during that ceremony, when he, the Afghan president, Pakistani prime minister, and Indian minister for state and external affairs, briefly flew to Herat to continue celebrations marking the launch.
The location of the October 20 inauguration was also not far from the Islim Chesme border crossing, where Berdimuhamedov met with Afghan officials in September 2024 to again launch construction of the Afghan section of TAPI. Baradar and Berdimuhamedov spoke about the project’s importance in fostering greater regional cooperation, the economic benefits of which include creating jobs and providing energy to areas that greatly need it.
Similar remarks were made by Berdimuhamedov and others at previous TAPI launches. Work did finally start after the 2024 launch.
Afghanistan’s Tolo News reported that according to the country’s Ministry of Mines and Petroleum, 14 kilometers of the pipe have been laid, and 70 more kilometers of the route are set for pipeline installation.
Turkmen state media always refers to Berdimuhamedov as “Arkadag,” which means “protector” in the Turkmen language. According to Turkmen state media, the Serhetabat-Herat section of the pipeline is called “Arkadagyn Ak Yoly,” or “Arkadag’s White Road.”
Tolo News also reported that, “Recently, a large quantity of gas transmission pipes was imported from Turkmenistan into Afghanistan.“ It appears the Serhetabat-Herat section of TAPI is making progress, but it could be years before the pipeline goes any farther.
A More Modest Goal
For nearly the entire history of the TAPI project, the major obstacle to actually building the pipeline was the security problem inside Afghanistan. That problem is not over, but it is significantly reduced now that the Taliban are again imposing brutal control over the country.
Military conflicts in recent months between Pakistan and both the other partners in the TAPI project shine a spotlight on another problem that has always raised questions about the viability of the TAPI project.
TAPI aims to carry 33 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas, 14 bcm each for Pakistan and India, and 5 bcm for Afghanistan. While Berdimuhamedov and other leaders say TAPI promotes regional cooperation, it could just as easily become a weapon. If Pakistan and India again become involved in open hostilities, will Pakistan continue to allow TAPI gas to flow to India? If Afghan and Pakistani military forces clash again, will Afghanistan let TAPI gas pass into Pakistan?
None of that was mentioned at the October 20 gathering, but there was a hint that Turkmenistan and Afghanistan are immediately only interested in the pipeline shipping gas to Afghanistan.
The deputy spokesman for the Afghan government, Handullah Fitrat, said, “With the completion of this project, or at least its arrival in Herat, Afghanistan will gain access to Turkmen gas, and we will be able to provide gas to the people.”
Terminus Herat
From Herat, the pipeline’s route runs southeast to Kandahar, then east to Pakistan and India, but for the moment, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan might only be interested in seeing the pipeline reach Herat. Afghanistan’s fourth-largest city, Herat has a population of somewhere around 750,000 people. Herat Province is the second-largest province in Afghanistan with a population approaching four million.
Access to a reliable source of energy would be a huge benefit for the province.
The problem is that TAPI is being built to carry 33 bcm of gas, and Afghanistan, with its primitive domestic pipeline infrastructure, can consume only a modest amount of that.
However, Turkmenistan is quickly running out of options for exporting its gas, and it has reached the point where, for Turkmenistan, something is better than nothing.
When China and Russia signed a deal in early September for the construction of the Sila Sibiri-2 (Power of Siberia-2) gas pipeline, it almost certainly meant that the proposed Line D pipeline from Turkmenistan to China will not be built. Line D would carry 30 bcm of Turkmen gas, but Sila Sibiri-2 will bring 50 bcm of Russian gas to China, greatly reducing, if not totally eliminating, China’s need to buy additional Turkmen gas.
China already purchases around 35 bcm of Turkmen gas annually via Lines A, B, and C of the Central Asia-China pipeline network, leading from Turkmenistan.
Turkmenistan had an agreement in 2024 to sell Iraq 10 bcm of gas annually, but that involved a swap deal with Iran, and U.S. sanctions on Iran eventually scuttled the plan.
The Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline project to bring some 30 bcm of Turkmen gas to Europe has been around as long as TAPI. The only progress on that has been the construction of the 773-kilometer East-West pipeline inside Turkmenistan, completed in 2015, that connects gas fields in the interior to Turkmenistan’s Caspian coast.
Turkmenistan has the fourth-largest gas reserves in the world, some 17 trillion cubic meters. But currently, Turkmenistan is only selling 35 bcm to China, and much smaller amounts to Turkey, some 1.3 bcm this year, but 2 bcm starting in 2026, up to 2 bcm to neighbor Uzbekistan, and 1 to 2 bcm to Azerbaijan.
Curiously, the sales to Turkey and Azerbaijan are both swap arrangements involving Iran, though neither faced the complications of the similar swap deal with Iraq.
So, there are no new customers for Turkmen gas on the horizon. There is a 214-kilometer pipeline inside Turkmenistan that connects to Afghanistan, and there are 14 more kilometers of pipeline on the other side of the border.
International financing for TAPI has always been an issue, so Turkmengaz, the operator of the TAPI project, presumably paid for the pipeline segments recently delivered to Afghanistan.
The fact that Halk Maslahaty Chairman Berdimuhamedov, who was Turkmenistan’s president from 2006-2022, made what was only his second visit to Afghan territory – albeit only a few meters inside Afghanistan – on October 20 further underscores Turkmenistan’s anxiousness to see some progress, anywhere, in selling its gas.
Realistically, Afghanistan can only take volumes of gas that, at most, similar to the amount Turkmenistan ships to Azerbaijan, Turkey, or Uzbekistan.
The good news is that the Taliban government has been able to pay Turkmenistan and its Central Asian neighbors for the electricity they all ship to Afghanistan, so the Taliban government can probably pay for the Turkmen gas also.
If this is not all the Turkmen government hoped for, there is potential consolation at least, as even shipping gas solely to Herat would demonstrate TAPI is viable, and that could convince organizations and countries that have been wary about investing that the project can be realized.
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It’s a factor that the Rivian CEO said he wished more people talked about to de-mystify why China’s rate of electrification surpasses that of the US.
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Read the original article on Business Insider