Month: September 2025

On Tuesday in New York City, various leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries sat down with President Donald Trump in an atmosphere of deep unease. The summit, which included other Arab and Muslim leaders, came days after the first-ever Israeli airstrike on a Gulf country—a stunning escalation that shook their faith in U.S. security guarantees that underpin stability in their region.
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Following the attack, Saudi Arabia, the dominant GCC country, concluded a mutual defense treaty with Pakistan, a military powerhouse with nuclear weapons. The Saudis are believed to have not informed their American partners until the deal was inked.
Some in Washington are interpreting this major development as a Saudi step away from the U.S., a subtle rebuke to the American security umbrella. That is a misreading. The pact is not aimed at Washington but at complementing U.S. security guarantees that have repeatedly proven inadequate—historically against Iran, and most recently in deterring and defending against the Israeli airstrike targeting Hamas negotiators in Qatar.
These concerns and frustrations among America’s Gulf Arab partners are not new. They stretch back over a decade and across Republican and Democratic administrations alike. The Obama Administration secretly negotiated the Iran nuclear deal without consulting GCC capitals. Trump, for all his early outreach, failed to respond during his first term when Houthi drones and missiles linked to Iran came crashing down on Saudi oil facilities in 2019. President Biden, too, looked the other way when the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen attacked the United Arab Emirates with drones in 2022. Each of these episodes reinforced a perception in Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and beyond: that the U.S. cannot be relied upon exclusively.
Last week’s brazen Israeli airstrikes against Hamas negotiators in Doha turbocharged those anxieties. For years, Gulf rulers worried about Iran. But now, Israel—Washington’s closest regional ally—crossing such a red line has shaken confidence in America’s willingness to keep the regional balance from tipping dangerously out of control.
The Trump Administration claims it was unable to thwart the attack, notified by Israel just as its jets were in the air and about to fire their missiles. Few Arab leaders believe this narrative, and reporting from Israel suggests Trump was given ample notice.
Arab concerns are amplified by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s own words and actions. Having destroyed much of the Iran-backed axis across the Levant, Netanyahu now boasts that Israel is fighting “on seven fronts,” a sweeping declaration that suggests an ambition to reshape the region far beyond narrow self-defense. Already, Israeli forces have seized and occupied territory in southern Lebanon and in southern Syria. At home, Netanyahu openly flirts with annexing large swaths of the West Bank. To GCC leaders, such rhetoric and actions are not only provocative but destabilizing, threatening to redraw the map of the Middle East unilaterally, replacing Iranian hegemony with that of Israel.
The Gulf states are valuable U.S. partners. Their energy supplies and huge sovereign wealth funds help underwrite America’s competitive edge over China in energy and capital-intensive industries of the future—AI, cloud computing, and the mining and processing of rare-earth minerals. And their hundreds of billions of dollars in U.S. treasury bills bolster the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency. Trump certainly understands this, and it’s why he made Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar his first foreign destination upon taking office, securing billions in new investments.
That is why Trump must take the Saudi-Pakistan defense pact not as a rejection, but as a warning shot. The Gulf states are hedging against Israeli overreach—not abandoning America.
The upcoming visit by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Washington this November will present an opportunity to reassure and deepen defense ties with the most important GCC state. And while an ironclad defense treaty ratified by the U.S. Senate remains politically unfeasible, Trump can expand on existing defense commitments modeled on the U.S.–Bahrain Comprehensive Security Integration and Prosperity Agreement (C-SIPA) signed in 2023, the strongest U.S. commitment outside of NATO’s Article 5. These commitments must extend to defending Gulf allies, even when the source of the threat is Israel.
If the Trump Administration fails to act, the Saudi–Pakistan defense pact could become more than just a bilateral agreement. Regional heavyweights Egypt and Turkey, which were also at Tuesday’s meeting, are similarly very concerned about an Israeli-dominated Middle Eastern order. The pact could become the nucleus for other Islamic defense accords—undermining Trump’s signature foreign-policy achievement: the Abraham Accords.
Rather than expanding the Abraham Accords and paving the way for further normalization between Israel and Arab nations, unchecked Israeli overreach will drive America’s Arab and Muslim allies into parallel security arrangements of their own.
The choice before Washington is stark. Reassure America’s Gulf allies and contain Israel within its legitimate borders—or risk watching America’s security architecture in the Middle East unravel.
吉尔吉斯斯坦解散议会;早期选举的准备工作开始
Deputies in Kyrgyzstan’s parliament voted on September 25 to dissolve parliament, paving the way for early elections that will be conducted under a revised electoral format later this year.
Deputies voted 84-0 in favor of dissolving parliament. Five other deputies abstained from voting, and one MP was absent from the session.
Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov now has five days to name the date for snap parliamentary elections, though speaker of parliament Nurlanbek Turgunbek uulu said he expects the date will be November 30.
The move was expected as a group of deputies started collecting signatures earlier in September to introduce a motion on dissolving parliament.
The chairman of Kyrgyzstan’s Central Election Commission (CEC), Tynchtykbek Shaynazarov, said in an interview on September 2 that the CEC is ready to conduct parliamentary elections this year, “if [parliament] takes the decision to dissolve itself.”
Shaynazarov explained the reason for advancing elections by one year. “According to the law, and plans, the elections for deputies to the Jogorku Kenesh (Kyrgyzstan’s parliament) will take place in November 2026.”
However, Shaynazarov said, “According to the constitutional regulations, the next presidential election is set for January 2027. If we have (parliamentary) elections… in November 2026, the CEC must release an official tally (of votes) within 20 days.” Shaynazarov continued, “Then there will be those who are dissatisfied with the elections and will file a lawsuit. Thus, the campaign for the election of deputies may drag on until December.”
Shaynazarov pointed out this would overlap with campaigning for the presidential election.
Member of Parliament Janar Akayev agreed the proximity of the two elections according to the current schedule could negatively impact the work of the CEC.
Akayev also noted that Japarov signed a new law on procedures for electing parliamentary deputies in June this year.
That law changed the mixed system of electing deputies Kyrgyzstan used in 2021, whereby 36 MPs were elected in single-mandate districts and 54 by party lists. In the next elections, all 90 deputies will be chosen in single-mandate districts. “Since current MPs support the transition to a new system, new elections should be held,” Akayev said.
Kyrgyzstan’s early parliamentary elections, in 1995, 2000, and 2005, were conducted via single-mandate districts. Election by party lists was first used in the 2007 snap elections, and continued to be used in the 2010, 2015, and 2020 elections.
The new regulations for parliamentary elections have negative and positive aspects.
The non-refundable fee to seek a seat in parliament favors the wealthy.
The fee for independent candidates to run remains at 100,000 Kyrgyz som (about $1,115), which is still a high price in a country where the average monthly salary is just a bit over 41,000 som.
Political parties can still participate in elections but must pay 9 million som (almost $103,000). Currently six parties have seats in parliament, but 21 parties fielded candidates in the 2021 elections.
The prohibitively high cost of registering will make it difficult for many people who aspire to a seat in parliament to run as candidates, leaving mainly those with access to relatively large amounts of money to run for seats.
Further favoring the affluent and powerful, all of Kyrgyzstan’s previous elections have been riddled with accusations of vote-buying and use of state funding and/or influence for select candidates. Japarov’s government has criticized both practices, and several of the deputies elected in November 2021 were subsequently removed for paying for votes.
Parliamentary Speaker Turgunbek uulu addressed these concerns when announcing the dissolution of parliament. “The current government intends to hold clean and transparent elections,” Turgunbek uulu said, “No one will be pushed through, no one will be hindered.”
The new elections rules make it obligatory for 30 of the 90 seats, at least one seat from each of the 30 voting districts, to go to women.
The new rules also dispense with by-elections should a deputy step down from his or her post. One of the authors of the amendments to the election law, Ulan Primov, pointed out that Kyrgyzstan has spent nearly 200 million som (about $2.29 million) on by-elections since the 2021 parliamentary elections.
The candidate from the district with a vacated seat who received the fourth most votes in elections will receive the empty seat. If the deputy vacating their seat is a woman, the female candidate who received the next highest number of votes in that electoral district will fill the seat.
The current parliament will continue to function until elections.
Campaigning officially starts 30 days before the elections.
Deputies in Kyrgyzstan’s parliament voted on September 25 to dissolve parliament, paving the way for early elections that will be conducted under a revised electoral format later this year.
Deputies voted 84-0 in favor of dissolving parliament. Five other deputies abstained from voting, and one MP was absent from the session.
Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov now has five days to name the date for snap parliamentary elections, though speaker of parliament Nurlanbek Turgunbek uulu said he expects the date will be November 30.
The move was expected as a group of deputies started collecting signatures earlier in September to introduce a motion on dissolving parliament.
The chairman of Kyrgyzstan’s Central Election Commission (CEC), Tynchtykbek Shaynazarov, said in an interview on September 2 that the CEC is ready to conduct parliamentary elections this year, “if [parliament] takes the decision to dissolve itself.”
Shaynazarov explained the reason for advancing elections by one year. “According to the law, and plans, the elections for deputies to the Jogorku Kenesh (Kyrgyzstan’s parliament) will take place in November 2026.”
However, Shaynazarov said, “According to the constitutional regulations, the next presidential election is set for January 2027. If we have (parliamentary) elections… in November 2026, the CEC must release an official tally (of votes) within 20 days.” Shaynazarov continued, “Then there will be those who are dissatisfied with the elections and will file a lawsuit. Thus, the campaign for the election of deputies may drag on until December.”
Shaynazarov pointed out this would overlap with campaigning for the presidential election.
Member of Parliament Janar Akayev agreed the proximity of the two elections according to the current schedule could negatively impact the work of the CEC.
Akayev also noted that Japarov signed a new law on procedures for electing parliamentary deputies in June this year.
That law changed the mixed system of electing deputies Kyrgyzstan used in 2021, whereby 36 MPs were elected in single-mandate districts and 54 by party lists. In the next elections, all 90 deputies will be chosen in single-mandate districts. “Since current MPs support the transition to a new system, new elections should be held,” Akayev said.
Kyrgyzstan’s early parliamentary elections, in 1995, 2000, and 2005, were conducted via single-mandate districts. Election by party lists was first used in the 2007 snap elections, and continued to be used in the 2010, 2015, and 2020 elections.
The new regulations for parliamentary elections have negative and positive aspects.
The non-refundable fee to seek a seat in parliament favors the wealthy.
The fee for independent candidates to run remains at 100,000 Kyrgyz som (about $1,115), which is still a high price in a country where the average monthly salary is just a bit over 41,000 som.
Political parties can still participate in elections but must pay 9 million som (almost $103,000). Currently six parties have seats in parliament, but 21 parties fielded candidates in the 2021 elections.
The prohibitively high cost of registering will make it difficult for many people who aspire to a seat in parliament to run as candidates, leaving mainly those with access to relatively large amounts of money to run for seats.
Further favoring the affluent and powerful, all of Kyrgyzstan’s previous elections have been riddled with accusations of vote-buying and use of state funding and/or influence for select candidates. Japarov’s government has criticized both practices, and several of the deputies elected in November 2021 were subsequently removed for paying for votes.
Parliamentary Speaker Turgunbek uulu addressed these concerns when announcing the dissolution of parliament. “The current government intends to hold clean and transparent elections,” Turgunbek uulu said, “No one will be pushed through, no one will be hindered.”
The new elections rules make it obligatory for 30 of the 90 seats, at least one seat from each of the 30 voting districts, to go to women.
The new rules also dispense with by-elections should a deputy step down from his or her post. One of the authors of the amendments to the election law, Ulan Primov, pointed out that Kyrgyzstan has spent nearly 200 million som (about $2.29 million) on by-elections since the 2021 parliamentary elections.
The candidate from the district with a vacated seat who received the fourth most votes in elections will receive the empty seat. If the deputy vacating their seat is a woman, the female candidate who received the next highest number of votes in that electoral district will fill the seat.
The current parliament will continue to function until elections.
Campaigning officially starts 30 days before the elections.
