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After New York, a Shake-Up in Astana: Tokayev Resets His Team Amid Foreign Policy Scrutiny

At the end of last week, the most talked-about news in Kazakhstan was the latest reshuffle in the upper echelons of government. Just one day after returning from New York, where he participated in the UN General Assembly, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev signed a series of personnel decrees.

On Thursday, five presidential aides responsible for various portfolios were dismissed. The following day, Tokayev appointed former aide for international affairs Yerzhan Kazykhan as Kazakhstan’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations and other international organizations in Geneva. On the same day, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Murat Nurtleu was dismissed and reassigned as Assistant to the President for International Investment and Trade Cooperation. Yerzhan Ashikbayev, Kazakhstan’s Ambassador to the United States, was also relieved of his post.

As is customary in Kazakhstan, no official comments were made regarding the reshuffle in Akorda. And as is also typical, speculation exploded across social media, with journalists and bloggers debating the implications throughout the weekend.

Speculation regarding potential personnel changes at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs had begun even before Tokayev’s trip to New York. On September 4, a local media outlet reported that Nurtleu had allegedly been arrested by the National Security Committee. Although Minister of Culture and Information Aida Balaeva promptly denied the claim, rumours persisted until September 8, when Nurtleu himself told journalists in parliament: “This is all a lie and absurd. There is nothing to comment on.” The supposed scandal shortly fizzled out.

Nevertheless, the official announcement of Nurtleu’s dismissal reignited debate, with local media linking the move to President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s recent trip to New York. Commentators framed the visit as a diplomatic misstep, with Exclusive.kz writing that “domestic diplomacy… suffered a spectacular failure in the Big Apple.” Orda.kz noted that the “meeting between the President of Kazakhstan and the United States did not take place. Apparently, the negotiations reported by Akorda took place by telephone.” Former diplomat Kazbek Beisebayev, meanwhile, stressed that contact between the presidents was “limited to a phone call and congratulations. Meanwhile, Mirziyoyev managed to meet with Trump, and Uzbekistan signed a major contract with Boeing.” Questions were also raised over Kazakhstan’s $4.2 billion locomotive deal with U.S. firm Wabtec, with Orda.kz concluding that the “profitability of this deal remains unclear.”

These criticisms, however, overlook the fact that Tokayev’s trip was not a state visit to the United States but a working visit to participate in the 80th session of the UN General Assembly. As for the agreement with U.S. company Wabtec, critics neglected to mention the details of the long-term contract, which includes the purchase of 300 locomotives between 2027 and 2036 (30 units annually), the extension of service for 405 existing locomotives until 2058, and comprehensive maintenance until 2054.

So what actually prompted these seemingly unexpected resignations and appointments?

Well-known Central Asian political analyst and historian Daniyar Ashimbayev believes the changes are part of a broader effort to streamline the presidential administration. He pointed out that the growing number of assistants and advisers, 15 in total, had created duplication of functions and reduced overall efficiency. Speaking to InBusiness.kz, Ashimbayev explained: “It was decided to reduce the overly large team. These are not spontaneous decisions, but the continuation of work initiated after the president’s address.” He added that this year’s packed foreign policy agenda delayed the typical post-address reshuffle: “A structure is now being formed that is tailored to the implementation of the tasks announced by the head of state.”

Observers note that such appointments and resignations are subject to formal procedures and are rarely decided overnight. Diplomatic rotations are especially structured, with ambassadorial posts requiring agreement from host countries. Kazakhstan’s embassy in Washington is now temporarily without a head, but a new envoy is expected soon. Under Kazakh law, ambassadors serve five-year terms. Yerzhan Ashikbayev had been in Washington for more than four years, and while terms can be extended, the decision rests solely with the president.

Meanwhile, the newly appointed Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yermek Kusherbayev, is a veteran diplomat whose career began in 1988 and who is well known within foreign policy circles.

On September 29, further cabinet changes were announced. Zhaslan Madiyev was appointed Minister of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development, and Zhuldyz Suleimenova became Minister of Education.

Taken together, the series of changes suggests a routine rotation of senior officials across government, aimed at improving efficiency and aligning the administration with Tokayev’s stated priorities, rather than any dramatic rupture in policy direction.

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Pressure mounts on Iran’s regime as snapback sanctions and internal dissent escalate

The Return of the Snapback Mechanism

On September 28, 2025, international attention returned to Iran as the much-debated “snapback” mechanism was activated under United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231. This decision restores the full array of sanctions previously lifted under the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA), with dire implications for Tehran, including bans on arms sales, restrictions on uranium enrichment, limitations on ballistic missile development, frozen overseas assets, and renewed travel bans for senior officials, reports 24brussels.

The Iranian economy, already battered from years of mismanagement and corruption, now braces for another significant shock. A further plunge in the national currency and inflation threatens to deepen the hardships faced by ordinary Iranians. In response to mounting domestic and international pressures, Iranian authorities have escalated their repression, recalling diplomatic envoys from Germany, France, and the UK, and hinting at a possible termination of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

As of midnight on September 28, 2025, UN sanctions, which had been suspended for a decade and provided the current regime the opportunity to enhance its nuclear capabilities and regional military activities, are now in full effect. Following the activation, Maryam Rajavi, president-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), stated:

The UN Security Council resolutions are essential to prevent the religious dictatorship from acquiring a nuclear bomb and must be enforced decisively. However she emphasized, The final solution is regime change by the Iranian people, and the right to resist against the regime of terror and massacre must be recognized.”

Executions at Record Levels: A Regime Under Siege from Within

The situation in Iran is compounded by alarming domestic unrest. Instead of addressing public discontent, the authorities have increased their crackdown on dissent. Reports from the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) indicate that at least 27 executions occurred between September 14 and September 16 alone, bringing the total to more than 880 since March 21, 2025. This includes an unprecedented 190 executions between August 21 and September 20, marking the most significant rise in executions in the past 25 years of the current regime.

Over the last year, estimates suggest that approximately 1,850 individuals have faced execution, encompassing women, juvenile offenders, and political prisoners, often after unfair trials or on vague accusations such as “enmity against God.” This translates to an execution occurring every few hours in Iran.

These statistics underscore a regime increasingly reliant on violence to secure its power. Rather than projecting strength, this wave of brutality suggests profound insecurity, with authorities seemingly more focused on quelling domestic unrest than on navigating the effects of international sanctions.

A Democratic Opposition Rising on the World Stage

The NCRI, along with its primary faction, the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK), has organized major rallies that have captured international attention. On September 6 in Brussels, tens of thousands assembled to commemorate the 60th anniversary of the PMOI, urging European governments to align with the aspirations of the Iranian populace seeking regime change rather than supporting a regime that maintains power through executions and fear. The demonstration attracted prominent figures from Europe and beyond, amplifying the political significance of the opposition.

Simultaneously, during the United Nations General Assembly in New York, the NCRI hosted two high-profile events. Thousands of Iranian-Americans rallied in support of Maryam Rajavi’s Ten-Point Plan, advocating for a secular, democratic, and nuclear-free Iran. By foregrounding Tehran’s human rights violations and presenting a viable alternative, these gatherings established the NCRI not merely as an exiled opposition group, but as a legitimate political force with growing international support.

In her address to the United Nations, NCRI President-elect Maryam Rajavi articulated the essence of this democratic vision:

“Our message for Iran’s future is simple: the sovereignty of the people—just these two words! The people’s republic. We want neither a mullah nor a Shah. The era of all forms of dictatorship, whether religious or monarchical, is over. We will not return to the past, and we have risen up against the current religious dictatorship. Let the world hear this today, in front of the United Nations: Tomorrow belongs to us. Victory belongs to us.”

The Convergence of Pressure: Why the Regime’s Days Appear Numbered

These interconnected dynamics illustrate a regime increasingly isolated and beleaguered. With external sanctions and internal dissent mounting, coupled with the rise of a credible opposition, the long-term viability of the current Iranian leadership appears in jeopardy. Historically, authoritarian regimes may seem resilient until they collapse, yet developments within Iran suggest that the current authorities are quickly exhausting both their time and options.

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