Day: September 24, 2025

It seems that average Turkmen citizens will again have to find ways to ration their spending in 2026, and beyond, thanks to a proposal from a member of the country’s Council of Elders.

At a session of the Halk Maslahaty (People’s Council) on September 19, Elders’ Council member Yazmyrat Atamyradov, who, in fairness, probably drew the short straw before the session started, said that socio-economic conditions in Turkmenistan have reached such a high level that there is no longer a need for cost-of-living increases for salaries, pensions, stipends, and other benefits.

“You are bestowing such blessings upon our people, Hero Arkadag!” Atamyradov said in his address. “Our sons and daughters, grandchildren, and great-grandchildren go to school and work without a care in the world. A peaceful, carefree life itself is a priceless treasure and a great asset.”

Most of Turkmenistan’s people likely would not agree with Atamyradov’s suggestion, but his words were meant for only one person, Halk Maslahaty Chairman Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, who was in attendance and thanked Atamyradov for the recommendation.

Most of the effusive praise for Turkmenistan’s alleged astounding socio-economic achievements was also directed at Berdimuhamedov, who served as Turkmenistan’s president from late 2006 until March 2022, when he stepped down and his son Serdar took the helm. Changes to Turkmenistan’s constitution in early 2023 made the Halk Maslahaty chairman the highest post in the country.

A Deteriorating Economy

There is no basis for Atamyratov’s assertion that living conditions are improving in Turkmenistan. The suggestion to cut annual payment increases more likely means the authorities can no longer afford to continue funding cost-of-living increases.

Turkmenistan has the fourth largest reserves of natural gas in the world, and in the early years after independence, in late 1991, then-President Saparmurat Niyazov forecast the country would soon become a second Kuwait and everyone would be driving Mercedes.

It has not worked out like that at all.

Turkmenistan has a lot of gas, but only a few customers. The steep drop in gas prices in 2015 devastated Turkmenistan’s economy, which is about 80% dependent on revenue from gas sales, and has never recovered.

The first food shortages independent Turkmenistan had ever seen started in 2016. Flour, cooking oil, sugar, eggs, and other basic goods were often not available at state stores where goods are sold at a subsidized price, but have always been available at privately-owned stores and at bazaars, where the price is two or three times more expensive.

Eventually, rationing was introduced on bread. Customers were limited to two and sometimes only one churek (flat, round bread) per person. In some areas, police were tasked with monitoring sales to ensure no one bought more than their allotment.

Often, there were more customers than bread, and in many places, including the capital, Ashgabat, lines started forming outside state stores before the sun came up. The authorities responded by telling people to line up behind the store so they could not be seen from the street.

Fast forward to 2025, where in Turkmenistan’s cities, some people have resorted to rummaging through garbage bins looking for something to sell, usually plastic for recycling, or, less often, but more dire, for food scraps. Police are increasingly chasing away children, and recently, some elderly people who are begging near bazaars.

The State Giveth, and the State Taketh Away

For most of Turkmenistan’s years as an independent country, such incidents never happened. The government has always kept extremely tight control, but until the economic crisis started in 2015, most of the basic needs of the people, including sufficient amounts of food, were met.

Turkmen citizens once enjoyed an assortment of benefits. In 2008, Berdimuhamedov ordered that every citizen was eligible for up to 120 liters of gasoline per month for free. That lasted until the end of June 2014, when it was canceled. Shortly after independence, the Turkmen government began offering every citizen up to 50 cubic meters of gas, 35 kilowatt hours of electricity, and 250 liters of water per month, for free. Payment was required above those limits.

When Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov was president, he often boasted about these benefits as proof of Turkmenistan’s success. Speaking to Turkmenistan’s Cabinet in January 2016, Berdimuhamedov said, “Our people, as before, enjoy free access to electricity, natural gas, drinking water, and table salt.”

During an unannounced, lightning trip to Berlin in September 2016 that some believed was to check on the rumored billions of dollars he had stashed in German banks, Berdimuhamedov briefly answered questions at a hastily arranged press conference. Asked about reported rights abuses in Turkmenistan, Berdimuhamedov responded that Turkmenistan’s people were supplied with free gas, electricity, and water, so how could the government be repressing them?

On October 9, 2017, at a session of the Council of Elders, Berdimuhamedov announced that free allotments of gas, electricity, and water would be phased out, since they were only given due to earlier hard economic conditions in the country. The country’s socio-economic situation had improved so much, he said, that there was no longer a need to give people free utilities.

On September 25, 2018, Berdimuhamedov told the Halk Maslahaty that starting January 1, 2019, there would no longer be any free gas, electricity, water, or salt.

Stretched Thinner

Turkmenistan continues to encounter difficulties finding new customers for its gas, meaning it is unlikely any additional revenue will be coming into the state’s coffers anytime soon.

Atamyratov’s proposal will probably be accepted. If Turkmenistan’s people are lucky, annual increases might only be reduced, and not cut entirely.

The official rate of Turkmenistan’s currency, the manat, is 3.5 to $1, but the rate on the black market, which many feel is a better reflection of the manat’s true value, is several times higher.

One report noted that the minimum monthly pension currently is 550 manat, which translates to some $27.50 at the real rate of the Turkmen currency. The price of meat is approaching 100 manat per kilogram. Inflation is running at more than 10%. If cost-of-living increases are canceled, 2026 will be a difficult year for many in Turkmenistan, with the prospect of every year after becoming even worse.

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy has confirmed that the country’s six-month ban on fuel exports remains in full effect, with no gasoline shipments currently sent to Uzbekistan or other neighboring countries.

Officials acknowledged a single exception earlier this year, when surplus volumes of AI-92 gasoline were exported to Uzbekistan in the spring. The ministry characterized the shipment as a routine measure aligned with international practice, designed to optimize domestic storage and increase tax revenues.

Since June, all fuel exports have been suspended to build strategic reserves ahead of scheduled maintenance at Kazakhstan’s oil refineries. The ban, introduced on May 19, covers gasoline, diesel, and other petroleum products.

Reports of Fuel Shortages and Smuggling

Speculation over renewed fuel shortages in Kazakhstan surfaced in local media on September 22, with reports citing illegal cross-border smuggling as a contributing factor. Some sources also claimed that Uzbekistan had increased purchases of Kazakh gasoline amid a decline in fuel imports from Russia.

In response, the Ministry of Energy reiterated that no current fuel exports are taking place and emphasized that the export moratorium is being strictly enforced.

Uzbekistan’s Fuel Market in Transition

Uzbekistan’s state energy company Uzbekneftegaz recently announced plans to phase out production of AI-80 gasoline starting in September. Beginning in 2026, the country intends to supply only higher-octane grades, including AI-92 and AI-95, to align with international fuel standards.

The regional fuel market has already undergone significant restructuring. In April 2024, the Telegram channel Oil & Gas of Kazakhstan reported that Uzbekistan was scaling back crude oil imports from Kazakhstan in favor of cheaper Russian supplies.

During the first quarter of 2024, Uzbek companies imported 15,200 tons of crude oil from Kazakhstan by rail, down from 25,600 tons during the same period in 2023. Most of this volume was refined at the Ferghana plant.

Meanwhile, Russia’s Gazprom Neft significantly expanded deliveries to Uzbekistan. In the first quarter of 2024, the company shipped 75,000 tons of crude via pipelines through Kazakhstan, nearly seven times more than the 10,700 tons delivered a year earlier.