Day: July 24, 2025

On Monday, Russia and Iran launched joint military exercises in the Caspian Sea under the banner “Together for a Safe and Secure Caspian Sea.” Officially, the drills aim to enhance maritime security and naval cooperation between the two countries and are being coordinated by Iran’s Northern Fleet. While such exercises might once have passed without much notice, their timing and frequency reflect a shifting dynamic: the Caspian region is rapidly emerging as a potential hotspot in global geopolitics.

Just one month prior, the same waters hosted joint military exercises between Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, held in Aktau, western Kazakhstan. These were followed by the “Tarlan-2025” air and tactical drills in Azerbaijan from July 8-10, which focused on enhancing UAV operations and military coordination.

Baku’s strategic alliance with Ankara is a key factor here. Azerbaijan, a close Turkish partner, is now engaged in a more strained relationship with Russia. Moscow’s muted reaction to this cooling suggests an awareness that Ankara is increasingly shaping a Turkic military-political bloc, an emerging force in a region of strategic importance to both Russia and China.

Earlier this month, Turkey launched its annual Anadolu-2025 special forces exercises. Participants included troops from 33 nations, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and others but notably excluded Russia.

For the first time, in 2024, military exercises were held in the Caspian without Russian involvement. The Birleistik (Unity) 2024 drills were conducted at Kazakhstan’s Oymasha training ground and Cape Tokmak along the Caspian coast. Troops from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan rehearsed scenarios including conflict zone identification, night maritime operations, and amphibious landings.

Previously, regional military cooperation had been limited to bilateral engagements, such as the 2023 UZAZ exercises (Azerbaijan-Uzbekistan), Kanzhar-2023 (Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan), and Hazri-2023 (Azerbaijan-Kazakhstan).

The spike in joint drills during 2024-2025 underscores growing rivalries between regional and global powers. These operations are not mere formalities but reveal emerging security alignments and geopolitical signals.

Three distinct blocs appear to be coalescing in the Caspian, with implications for Central Asia as well.

The first bloc includes Russia, Iran, and China. These nations have held annual “Maritime Security Belt” exercises since 2019, with the most recent in March 2025 off the Iranian coast.

The second bloc comprises Turkey, Azerbaijan, and members of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS). Defense ties among these countries are becoming a core element of OTS cooperation. At the 10th OTS Summit in Astana in 2023, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev emphasized defense as the main guarantor of member state security, citing ongoing regional conflicts and violations of international law.

The third bloc, more pragmatic and focused, is the Kazakhstan-Azerbaijan partnership. These countries are cooperating on the basis of the 2018 Caspian Convention to secure maritime communications. Azerbaijan contributes military expertise, particularly in UAV and drone warfare developed during the Karabakh conflicts. Kazakhstan brings diplomatic credibility and promotes regional governance and connectivity, offering a stabilizing complement to Azerbaijan’s military strengths.

In sum, the Caspian Sea, once colloquially referred to as “Russia’s lake”, is steadily losing that identity. It is transforming into a contested strategic zone, where three competing security visions intersect. The risk of escalation is real.

Whether the Caspian remains a sea of cooperation or becomes a flashpoint of geopolitical strife may soon depend on decisions made far beyond its shores.

Belarusian Deputy Defense Minister Major General Pavel Muraveyko announced on July 23, 2025, that the location of the joint Belarus-Russia military exercises “Zapad-2025,” scheduled for September, could be changed. Initially, Minsk and Moscow planned to hold the drills provocatively close to Belarus’s borders with the European Union. However, after appeals from the EU, Belarusian Defense Minister Lieutenant General Viktor Khrenin pledged in late May to move the exercises deeper inside Belarus. Now, Minsk signals a possible return of large-scale maneuvers near the borders with Lithuania and Poland, escalating regional security concerns.

Military posturing reacts to NATO neighbors’ increased readiness

The Belarusian defense ministry justified its stance by referencing Poland’s announcement of divisional-scale exercises near the border areas around Grodno and Białowieża Forest. Lithuania, for its part, is relocating its “Iron Wolf” brigade to the Pabradė training ground, merely 15 kilometers from Belarus’s border, preparing for exercises there. These moves prompted Minsk to reserve the right to reposition some units close to the EU borders during Zapad-2025 to practice defensive scenarios, underlining the tense military environment in the region.

Historical and strategic context heightens alarm in Brussels and capitals

Western capitals like Brussels, Warsaw, and Vilnius recall that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 partly originated from Belarusian territory, where prior joint military drills took place. NATO analysts have long identified the Suwałki Corridor as a potential flashpoint for aggression by Russia and Belarus. Special units from these countries are expected to attempt destabilizing Poland’s and Lithuania’s border regions using asymmetric tactics that could evade NATO detection.

Multiple eastern Baltic regions remain at risk of destabilization

In addition to the Suwałki Corridor, western experts highlight other vulnerable areas for possible Russian-Belarusian operations, including Lithuania’s Šalčininkai district, Latvia’s Daugavpils region, and the area surrounding Narva in Estonia. Despite a low probability of direct conflict during the September exercises, given Russia’s current military entanglement in Ukraine, these drills will provide valuable operational experience for Russian and Belarusian special forces in potential scenarios involving NATO or EU incursions.

Joint maneuvers reinforce eastern flank defense priorities in NATO allies

The overt pressure from Russian and Belarusian joint exercises underscores the rationale behind recent security moves by Poland and the Baltic states. These countries have increased defense spending to around 5% of GDP, withdrawn from the Ottawa Convention banning anti-personnel mines, and constructed extensive fortifications and border infrastructure. Additionally, NATO has introduced new types of joint military patrols in the region, reflecting heightened vigilance against threats along the eastern flank.

The evolving situation around “Zapad-2025” exemplifies ongoing tensions and the delicate balance of military posturing between Russia, Belarus, and NATO allies in Eastern Europe. It highlights persistent risks to regional security and the strategic imperative for continued defensive readiness.