Day: July 17, 2025

Sanctions against Russia may intensify if U.S. President Donald Trump escalates pressure on the Kremlin and Vladimir Putin. But even without additional measures, several sectors of Russia’s economy are already buckling under strain. Among the most vulnerable is civil aviation, now grappling with “fleet cannibalization”, a practice born of scarcity and isolation.

In this context, alarmist claims from Russian aviation analysts that Central Asian airlines might soon replace Russian carriers not only on international routes but potentially within Russia itself are being reassessed. So, what is actually happening and why?

Squeezing Russia Out

One of the most overlooked aviation developments of 2024 was the announcement at the Central Asian Aviation Summit in Astana that regional countries were forming their own civil aviation regulatory body. As Amir Akhmetov, senior advisor to the director of the Aviation Administration of Kazakhstan, put it: “In the changing geopolitical environment of the republics of Central Asia and the South Caucasus, together with like-minded countries, they are creating their own regional civil aviation organization, the Eurasian Civil Aviation Conference (EACAC).”

This initiative, first proposed by Astana in 2023, includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, as well as Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, and Mongolia. Although initially scheduled for 2025, the first EACAC meeting took place in Almaty in November 2024.

Russian observers have taken note. The publication Versiya, which had predicted Russia’s marginalization in the Central Asian aviation market as early as 2016, commented on the development in stark terms: “It is hard not to notice that this is truly a momentous event in the field of civil aviation regulation within the EAEU member states, aimed precisely at pushing Russia out of the process… which, after the formation of the announced structure, will de facto exist and be managed under direct Anglo-American influence.”

However alarmist the tone, the underlying concern is not unfounded. Russia’s aviation sector is increasingly isolated and dependent. By December 2024, it was confirmed that a new aircraft maintenance hub would be built in Aktau, one of Kazakhstan’s four major aviation centers. The project, spearheaded by Turkish Technic, YDA, and ASFAT, will serve civil and military aircraft from Kazakhstan, Russia, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

According to then-Minister of Transport Marat Karabayev, “The center will serve 411 civil aircraft… As a result of the project, the airport’s cargo handling capacity will increase to 200,000 tons per year, with an annual turnover of 520 billion tenge ($996.7 million).”

Aviation in Central Asia: A Regional Snapshot

In Kazakhstan, liberalization and competition have allowed the civil aviation sector to flourish. National carrier Air Astana operates hubs in Almaty and Astana and is widely considered among the best airlines in the post-Soviet space. Its low-cost subsidiary, FlyArystan, has grown rapidly, fueled by a strong Airbus fleet, now over 60 aircraft, with new A320 and A321 deliveries annually.

Private airline SCAT flies across the former USSR and Asia, while Qazaq Air, now rebranded as Vietjet Qazaqstan, entered into a strategic partnership in 2025 with Vietnam’s Sovico Group, owner of Vietjet Air. Fleet expansion plans include 20 Boeing 737 MAX or Airbus A321s.

Kazakhstan’s airport infrastructure, Almaty (ALA), Astana (NQZ), Shymkent, and Aktau, is undergoing modernization under the management of global operators such as TAV, Fraport, and Limak. The Open Skies policy now applies to 14 airports, and the country is actively working to align with EASA (European Aviation Safety Agency) standards.

Uzbekistan is not far behind. Its national carrier, Uzbekistan Airways, is modernizing with Airbus A321neo and Boeing 787s. New private carriers, Qanot Sharq, Silk Avia, and Center Avia, are expanding, while major airports like Tashkent and Samarkand are being upgraded. The country also offers fifth freedom rights on selected routes and plans to privatize shares in its national airline.

Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have minimal domestic aviation and are heavily reliant on foreign carriers. Meanwhile, Turkmenistan, despite its isolationist stance, operates Boeing 777 and 737 MAX aircraft through state-run Turkmenistan Airlines, which has regained EU flight permission after a 2019 ban.

Capturing the Russian Market: In Theory and Practice

Kazakhstan is now poised to replace Russia in key regional aviation segments, not out of hostility, but necessity. The dangers of fleet cannibalization, now commonplace in Russia due to sanctions and spare parts shortages, are well known in Kazakhstan. A tragic incident involving a cannibalized aircraft crashing shortly after takeoff, killing the entire crew, left a lasting impact. The country has since moved to ensure that such practices never recur.

And while Russian protectionism will prevent Central Asian airlines from fully replacing Russian carriers on domestic routes, opportunities exist on border routes, diaspora services, and transit corridors. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and others are moving to fill the vacuum, safely and efficiently.

Conspiracy theories that paint these moves as orchestrated by London or Washington reflect what many analysts identify as a lingering post-imperial mindset. As the article in Versiya reveals, Russian narratives often deny their neighbors the capacity for independent decision-making, even on critical matters like aviation safety.

Yet the shift is real. And it is hard to argue against it when images of dismantled Russian aircraft parked on remote runways offer visual proof of a system in decline.

A recent spate of violent assaults on doctors in Kyrgyzstan has sparked growing concern within the healthcare sector. Over the past week alone, multiple incidents of medical staff being physically attacked have been reported at the National Hospital in Bishkek, with relatives of patients identified as the primary perpetrators.

The first major incident involved a young resident doctor who was providing emergency treatment to a patient suffering from a severe nosebleed. According to local media reports, the patient’s relatives attempted to interfere during the treatment and later assaulted the doctor as he accompanied the patient to a hospital ward. The doctor sustained a concussion, and his uniform was torn during the altercation.

In a controversial move, police officers responding to the scene did not detain the attackers. Instead, they arrested the injured doctor, citing his use of obscene language. A court later sentenced him to three days of administrative detention.

Human rights advocates say the doctor was denied legal counsel. Despite mobile phone video footage recorded by the doctor and corroborating statements from hospital staff, law enforcement agencies reportedly ignored this evidence.

“The patient is much better, he received the necessary treatment and has been stable since. His relatives, however, acted with arrogance and cruelty toward medical personnel, seemingly convinced of their own impunity,” said Barmet Baryktabasova, chair of the Medical Trade Union.

Just days later, a second assault occurred at the same hospital, this time targeting an emergency department physician. Although the attack was captured on CCTV, police again refrained from detaining the perpetrators, issuing only vague statements.

The Medical Trade Union has announced plans to file formal appeals to the President’s Office, the Ministry of Health, the Prosecutor General, and the State Committee for National Security. The union argues that violence against medical professionals is becoming systemic and poses a threat to the integrity of Kyrgyzstan’s already strained healthcare infrastructure.

Health Minister Erkin Checheibaev condemned the assaults in a public Facebook post:

“There is lawlessness against doctors! The man who attacked the doctor must be punished. This sets a dangerous precedent when attackers face no consequences.”

He emphasized the urgent need to protect the dignity and physical safety of medical personnel, warning that failure to act could lead to a severe staffing crisis in the coming years.

This is not the first wave of violence against healthcare workers in Kyrgyzstan. In 2023, following several incidents, the National Hospital briefly enhanced security by installing panic buttons, surveillance cameras, and hiring private guards. However, these measures were later rolled back due to budget constraints.

Currently, the average salary for public sector healthcare workers in Kyrgyzstan ranges from $300 to $400 per month. Combined with long hours and frequent high-stress situations, poor compensation is prompting many experienced professionals to exit the system. The government has pledged to implement healthcare funding reforms over the next three to four years, but many in the medical community fear those changes will come too late.

The water level in Kazakhstan’s Lake Balkhash has increased by 32 centimeters during the first half of 2025, rising from 341.55 to 341.87 meters above sea level, based on the Baltic height system, according to data released by Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation.

Located approximately 280 kilometers northwest of Almaty, Lake Balkhash is one of Asia’s largest inland bodies of water and ranks as the fifteenth-largest lake in the world by surface area.

Since the beginning of 2025, 8.52 billion cubic meters of water have been discharged from the Kapchagay Reservoir in the Almaty region into Lake Balkhash. This marks an increase from 8 billion cubic meters over the same period in 2024. Officials expect total inflow from the reservoir to reach approximately 12 billion cubic meters by year-end.

The lake’s hydrological health is closely tied to the transboundary Ili River, which originates in China and supplies nearly 70% of Lake Balkhash’s total inflow. The Ili’s flow is regulated by the Kapchagay Reservoir, which in 2025 is at full capacity for the second consecutive year, a milestone not seen in over a decade. The reservoir had previously reached full capacity in 2024 for the first time in ten years.

In December 2024, Kazakhstan signed a cooperation agreement with the French Development Agency (AFD) and the French Geological Survey (BRGM) to support a long-term conservation effort for Lake Balkhash. The agreement outlines a comprehensive study of the lake basin and the development of a sustainability strategy through 2040, aiming to safeguard one of Central Asia’s most ecologically and economically significant water bodies.