As Pakistan reels from the most extensive airstrikes on its territory from India during official peacetime between the two countries, and amid ongoing gunfire exchanges across the Kashmir border, observers worry about further escalation between the nuclear-armed neighbors.
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But beyond bullets and missiles, there’s another weapon that India has threatened to use in the conflict that Pakistan has said would surely constitute an “Act of War”: water.
Among the targets of India’s early Wednesday strikes was Pakistan’s Neelum-Jhelum hydropower project, according to Pakistan’s armed forces. The strikes came just hours after India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that India would stop water from flowing out across its borders.
“Now, India’s water will flow for India’s benefit, it will be conserved for India’s benefit, and it will be used for India’s progress,” Modi said Tuesday.
India suspended its agreement to a 65-year-old treaty that governed water-sharing between the two countries late last month after “sustained cross border terrorism by Pakistan”—referring to an April 22 attack on tourists in Indian-controlled Kashmir by a Pakistani militant group that Pakistan has said it was not involved with.
Pakistan, in response, warned that any attempt to stop the flow of water from India, which is located upstream, “will be considered as an Act of War and responded with full force across the complete spectrum of National Power.”
The Indus Waters Treaty was brokered by the World Bank in 1960 after India and Pakistan’s independence from British rule and partition in 1947. The treaty divided access to the six rivers in the Indus basin, giving India control over the eastern rivers of Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej; while stipulating that Pakistan maintains access to the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers to the west. The agreement became foundational to peace in the region, given the dependence of both countries on the Indus basin water system for irrigating their agricultural lands.
Indian commentary has claimed that the treaty was very “generous” to Pakistan, which while located downstream was essentially given access to 80% of the system’s water. The treaty states that India cannot build infrastructure that restricts or redirects the flow of water from the western rivers—other than for limited agricultural use and generation of hydro-electric power. Until its unilateral withdrawal in April, India has generally honored the treaty even through wars with Pakistan.
The suspension of the agreement poses a significant risk to Pakistan’s economy, of which agriculture accounts for almost a quarter. “The majority of Pakistan’s irrigation, hydropower generation, electricity production, and overall development are heavily reliant on the Indus basin,” Himanshu Thakkar, a regional water resources expert, told Kerala-based newspaper Mathrubhumi.
But it’s unclear to what extent India has the capacity to block the flow of water to Pakistan. Experts have suggested that India currently lacks the dam infrastructure to completely control water flow from the rivers. Still, on May 4, India lowered sluice gates at the Baglihar dam, effectively reducing the downstream flow to Pakistan through the Chenab River by up to 90%, according to the Hindustan Times. And similar operations are reportedly planned for the Kishanganga project on the Jhelum River.
Hassan F. Khan, an assistant professor in urban and environmental policy and planning at Tufts University, wrote in Pakistani newspaper Dawn that while India cannot simply stop water flow into Pakistan, its reneging on the treaty would be felt more during the dry season spanning December to May: “A more pressing concern is what happens in the dry season when the flows across the basin are lower, storage matters more, and timing becomes more critical.”
Another way India can use water as a weapon is by withholding flood data. Pradeep Kumar Saxena, India’s former Indus Water Commissioner, told the Press Trust of India news agency in April that the country can stop sharing data with Pakistan after the pact’s suspension, which could be detrimental during monsoon season.