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Kazakhstan is on the cusp of a significant demographic transition. A recent report by the Unified Accumulative Pension Fund (UAPF), the agency overseeing the country’s pension system, projects that by 2050, 19% of Kazakhstan’s population will be of retirement or pre-retirement age.
The study, published on the UAPF website, reveals that as of January 1, 2025, Kazakhstan’s population had surpassed 20.3 million. Of this total, 42.8% — approximately 8.7 million people — were under the age of 25. Another 48% (around 9.7 million) were between 25 and 65, while 9.2%, or about 1.9 million people, were over 65 and currently classified as pensioners. Overall, individuals aged 60 and older now make up 13.9% of the total population.
According to UAPF forecasts, the national population is expected to grow to 26.3 million by the end of 2050. However, this growth will be accompanied by an aging trend. “This means that by 2050, on average, one in five Kazakhs will be aged 60 or older,” the report notes. This shift mirrors a broader global pattern of aging populations and declining birth rates.
Life expectancy in Kazakhstan, which had declined during the COVID-19 pandemic, has rebounded significantly. It rose from 70.23 years in 2021 to 75.44 years in 2024. At the same time, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has decreased from 3.32 children per woman in 2021 to 2.80 in 2024, with projections indicating a further drop to 2.42 by 2050.
“With the gradual decline in birth rates and increased life expectancy, fewer people are entering the labor market, and the imbalance between pensioners and the working-age population continues to grow,” UAPF analysts stated.
The report also predicts a neutral migration balance by 2050, meaning the number of people emigrating will roughly equal those immigrating for permanent residence. This marks a shift from earlier decades of net inward migration. Since 1991, over 1.15 million ethnic Kazakhs born abroad have moved to Kazakhstan permanently, according to data previously reported by The Times of Central Asia.
As Kazakhstan confronts these demographic realities, policymakers will need to consider long-term strategies to ensure the sustainability of its pension system and the vitality of its labor force.
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